Bitcoin (BTC): $19,884 as a key token
BTC rate: $19,158 (previous week: $20,684)
Resistances/short-term targets: 19,720/$20,036, $20,848, $21,373, $21,892, $22,834/23,289, $24,498, $26,734, $27,696/28,104, $29,256, $29,975, 30,612 $32,383
Short-term supports: $19,212/18,950, $18,585, $17,860/17,567, $16,180, $14,838, $14,311, $13,858
4-hour chart Price analysis based on the stock pair BTC/USD on Coinbase
- Bitcoin price missed breaking above the core resistance area at $21,892 again in the past few days. As a result, the key crypto coin returned to support from the daily chart at $18,950 on Thursday morning.
- The buy side must now do everything possible to stabilize the BTC price above $19,212 by the end of the day.
- The continued strength of the US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently having a negative impact on Bitcoin price performance.
- Bitcoin’s renewed price weakness is also due to the high correlation with the US Nasdaq100 and S&P500 stock indices.
- After a recovery in the previous week, both indices are once again trending more clearly to the south and threaten to start again at their lows for the year. A drop below these important price levels is likely to lead to follow-on global sales.
Mixed image on indicator page
- Both indicators, both the RSI and the MACD, have triggered sell signals again on the 4-hour chart, however, the RSI is already trading in oversold territory again. On a daily basis, both indicators threaten to generate new sell signals again if price weakness persists, a bearish signal.
- The fear and greed index also regressed deeply into the extreme “fear” range at 11.
- Although Bitcoin was able to end the last trading week with a green weekly candle, looking at the current weekly candle, another red candle cannot be ruled out for the current trading week. Only with a bounce above the $21,000 mark can the bulls prevent this weekly bearish development.
- Tomorrow, Friday, July 1, we should plan again with more volatility. Aside from the EU consumer price announcement, the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index numbers in the US are still due Friday afternoon.
Bullish scenario (BTC):
- The failed escape attempt on June 26 left its mark.
- Once again, the bull camp failed to generate a first major release.
- In the short term, the buying camp must now try to push BTC price back above the yellow resistance area between $18,950 and $19,212 by the end of the day.
- If Bitcoin can stabilize above this zone every 4 hours, a directional decision in the range between $19,720 and $20,036 is likely to be made. If a reconquest is successful and Bitcoin dynamically breaks through the downtrend line In the red, yesterday’s daily high of $20,431 will be in the spotlight.
- The supertrend and the gold pocket of the current corrective move between $20,227 and $20,365 are also running just below. Without price momentum, it’s likely to be a rough ride on the buyer’s side.
Back to last week’s high
- Only when Bitcoin sustainably breaks above yesterday’s daily high will additional price targets of $20,848 and $21,373 appear in the eyes of investors.
- If $21.373 successfully recovers, another directional decision is planned at the turquoise resistance zone.
- A sustained break above this strong resistance area triggers further upside potential towards the red resistance zone at $22,834–$23,289. At this zone at the latest, the bulls could once again take more profit off the table. Also, the bears will do their best to cap the BTC price in this area.
- If the group of buyers can generate enough buying pressure to break through this area sustainably, a follow-up move to $24,291 is planned.
- Here the BTC course should fail on the first try. In addition to the EMA200 (blue), the 161 Fibonacci extension of the current trend move is also found at 24,526 USDF.
The recovery towards $28,000 is taking shape
- If Bitcoin breaks through this zone without significant setbacks, the recovery move will continue to gain momentum.
- Although there are also potential reversal levels at $25,498 and $26,170, the price action indicates the possibility of a direct rally to the 61 Fibonacci retracement at $26,734.
- If Bitcoin also breaks above this price mark, a retest of the orange zone between $27,696 and the cutting edge at $28,104 is increasingly likely.
- At best, Bitcoin might even touch $28,607 briefly before plotting another setback to the south.
- If Bitcoin can also reclaim this strong resistance area in the coming trading weeks, the key cryptocurrency should target additional resistance levels at $29,256 and $29,975.
- As mentioned in the latest price analysis, the maximum bullish price targets for the near future are $31,750 and $32,383. Only a sustained break above $32.383 lights up the chart picture again more clearly in favor of the bullish camp.
Bearish scenario (BTC):
- Despite a tentative recovery in the previous week, the bears are still not giving up. The fact that Bitcoin can stop in the turquoise zone once again underlines the strength of the seller’s side.
- Bitcoin has dipped back below $19,884 again in the last 24 hours of trading. This indicates that the bears don’t seem to have had enough.
- As long as the sell side can cap Bitcoin in the near-term gray resistance zone, further sell-off attempts can be expected.
- If the support mark at $18,950 is undermined by the daily closing price, and the 23 Fibonacci retracement at $18,585 also does not provide any support, a drop to $17,860 becomes increasingly likely. Therefore, a retest of the yearly low at $17,567 should also be noted at any time.
Further price drops need to be planned
- If the classic stock market also trends towards new yearly lows due to lingering inflation and interest rate fears, Bitcoin could target support at $16,180. This course mark is taken from the daily chart.
- The bulls may attempt another reversal at this support level. If this attempt fails and Bitcoin drops below this support level by the end of the day, another significant drop in price can be expected.
- The green support area between $14,837 and $13,858 should act as a magnet on Bitcoin price. This support area continues to represent the maximum bearish price target for the summer months.
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations, they are merely an analyst’s assessment.
The chart images were created using TradingView created.
USD/EUR exchange rate at the time of publication: 0.96 EUR.
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