Bitcoin (BTC): Bitcoin continues to hover around $40,000
BTC rate: $40,826 (previous week: $42,025)
Resistances/Goals: $40,653, $42,445, $42,001, $43,546, $44,499, $45,596, $46,735, $47,470, $48,529, $48,993, $50,790/$51,307, $52,125, $9.07, $11.97, $8,005 $59,778, $61,771, $63,189, $64,896, $66,299, $67,416, $69,000
Support: $39,300, $38,289, $37,519, $36,312, $34,647, $32,930, $30,000, $28,810, $26,170
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to move in a trading range between $37,519 and $42,001 this trading week. Any attempts by investors to push the BTC price in one direction and thus end the current sideways phase continue to fail. At the moment, the ever-changing news on the evolution of the Ukraine crisis and the upcoming US Federal Reserve (FED) interest rate decision this Wednesday night are causing persistent indecision among investors.
Even the rejection of MICA by the EU Parliament earlier in the week failed to provide a lasting boost to price developments. Investors are still waiting for a directional decision and are watching the price development from the sidelines. To initiate a sustained release to the upside, Bitcoin must first dynamically break out of $42,001 and rally towards its all-time highs between $44,499 and $45,596.
Bullish scenario (Bitcoin price)
The bullish breakout and resumption of the short-term uptrend is further postponed. Bitcoin has moved in a trading range of around 11 percentage points in the last seven trading days. Stabilization at the support area at $37.519 is positive for bullish investors. Therefore, Bitcoin was able to form a higher low compared to the previous week. It is now up to the buyer side to aim for a higher high in the coming trading days. Therefore, investors should do everything in their power to first stabilize the price of Bitcoin above $40,596 and then recover to the $42,001 mark in the long run. Bitcoin would rise back above the EMA50 (orange) again. Only a daily closing price above this resistance level increases the chance of a subsequent rally to the $44,499–$45,874 resistance area.
For this, however, Bitcoin must first break above $43,546 to confirm the short-term bottom. If the price of BTC rises in the direction of its all-time highs, there will be another trending fight between bulls and bears. If Bitcoin breaks above $44,499 at the daily closing price and subsequently breaks above the EMA200 (blue) as well, the chart picture will continue to improve in the short term. A recovery of the all-time high at $45.907 raises the possibility of a rally to the 38 Fibonacci retracement at $46.633. If this resistance level also succeeds without leaving behind a significant correction, a continuation of the trend in the direction of the horizontal resistance at $48.529 should be planned. The MA200 (green) is currently running in the area of this horizontal resistance mark as well.
the worst could have happened
If Bitcoin also sustainably breaks above this multiple resistance level, it is increasingly likely to move towards the $50,790-$52,125 zone. BTC price last failed in this zone in December 2021. If Bitcoin regains perspective in this area and can also leave resistances at $53,005 and $54,077 in the following days, a rally to USD should be planned. 55,817. If Bitcoin subsequently breaks through this resistance as well, a groundbreaking directional decision can be expected at $57,901 at the latest. From this price level, the bears will try to start another bearish wave. Not infrequently, the 61 Fibonacci retracement of a full major bear move is the top correction target before the main southerly trend resumes.
However, if the bulls manage to sustainably break through this strong resistance, BTC price should continue to gain strength and attack the $59,778–$61,771 zone. This increases the probability of a rally to the old all-time high. A bottom formation above the psychologically important $60,000 mark makes a march through the $63.189 to $64.896 area likely. If there is no sustained profit-taking here either, Bitcoin is likely to target the last relevant resistance on the way to its all-time high. The resistance levels at $66,299 and $67,416 can be seen as the last potential reversal levels. In order to initiate price marks beyond $70,000 in the future, Bitcoin price must bite into the area of its previous high.
Bearish scenario (Bitcoin price)
Although the bears prevented any attempts to break out to the upside in the past seven trading days, they failed to generate a lower daily low. However, as long as Bitcoin is worth less than $42,001 and in particular does not break above the all-time high of $45,847, a renewed sell-off below $39,300 can be expected at any time.
If Bitcoin breaks below this support again, the weekly low of $37,519 will immediately be targeted again. The seller’s side must then do everything possible to pulverize this support. If Bitcoin dynamically falls further south, the correction initially extends to the upper edge of the turquoise support zone. A price drop below $36,312 will automatically trigger the next milestone at $34,647.
The chart image is clouding
If this support also breaks at the daily closing price, a drop to the year low of $32,930 is increasingly likely. The probability of Bitcoin starting at significantly lower prices in the future increases significantly. If the bulls remain abstinent, a correction extension to at least $31.603 is likely. Even an immediate reversal to the psychologically important $30,000 mark should come as no surprise.
The sell-side target should remain the 2021 low at $28,795. Admittedly, a counter-move is expected here initially. However, it is currently difficult to assess whether a sustainable reversal can be initiated. With a strong support area not far below the light green area between $26,170 and $27,562, the bears will do everything in their power to sell Bitcoin to the 61 Fibonacci retracement of the overall trending move found here. . If there is no sustainable bottom formation here, a sell-off in the direction of $20,000 cannot be ruled out.
Bitcoin Dominance: Trend Movement Takes a Breath
Bitcoin market dominance continues to hover near its yearly high. Although BTC dominance has failed to form a new all-time high over the past seven trading days, it has stabilized above the orange support area for the time being. This Wednesday morning, Bitcoin dominance is again trying to break past the previous week’s all-time high of 44.25 percent.
If Bitcoin’s market power breaks through this long-term resistance level, a subsequent rise in the direction of the next two targets at 45.09 percent and 45.71 percent is planned. On the downside, bitcoin dominance finds good support at 43.36 percent and 42.84 percentage points. If the dominance of the key crypto currency in this zone can bottom out, a gradual rise can be expected in the future.
BTC dominance: bullish scenario
The view for BTC dominance must be directed further north. As soon as the high of the last trading week at 44.25 percent is dynamically broken, the yellow resistance area should quickly appear. However, in the area between 45.09% and 45.71%, a bounce to the south is likely on the first try, as this is also where the dominant red downtrend line extends.
If the bulls also manage to break out of this area sustainably, a growing outperformance is conceivable. Bitcoin could then gain more market share from the altcoin sector. If resistance at 45.71 percent at the weekly close is also broken, a direct rally to 46.86 percent is likely.
Towards new highs for the year
This resistance level acts as the first relevant resistance level on the way to the October 2021 high at 47.72 percent. If BTC dominance also does not bounce south in the long term, additional target levels of 48.67 percent and 49.26 percent will move towards the investors’ outlook. Expect a setback on the first try.
Only when 49.26 percent can be broken by the daily closing price does the psychologically important 50 percent mark kick in as the next target. If there is no significant pullback in price, a further rise above 50.97 percent to the purple resistance area between 52.19 percent and 53.16 percent can be expected in the coming months. The maximum price target at the top can be seen initially in the 54.23 percent area.
BTC dominance: bearish scenario
If Bitcoin dominance remains capped at the 44.25 percent area and subsequently corrects below the strong support level at the 43.36 percent area, giving up the EMA20 (red) and EMA200 (blue) , a relapse is indicated to plan 42.84 percent. The EMA50 (orange), which should also provide support, is currently running at the lower edge of the orange support zone as well.
However, if BTC dominance slips below horizontal support at 42.84 percent, the zone between 42.52 percent and 42.28 percent will come into focus as a target area. With Supertrend and MA200 (green), there are two stronger supports here. On first contact, BTC dominance will bounce north. If Bitcoin dominance continues to weaken as a result and leaves this zone permanently, an expansion of the correction to 41.92 percent and 41.41 percentage points is conceivable.
Back to the lows of history
If Bitcoin market dominance does not stabilize here either, a direct drop to horizontal support at 41.01 percent is also possible. Similar to the past few weeks of trading, this price level represents strong support, leaving this support mark would have a signal effect and immediately expand the corrective move in the direction of 40.66 percent.
A greater extension of poor performance in the next period increases the probability of a relapse up to 40.03 percent. If BTC dominance breaks below this central support level at the weekly closing price, the price falls back towards the year lows at 39.56 percent and 39.24 percent is also not excluded. For the time being, the range between 39 percent and 40 percent represented the maximum correction target for the coming months.
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations, they are merely an analyst’s assessment.
The chart images were created using TradingView created.
USD/EUR exchange rate at the time of publication: 0.92 EUR.
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