After a positive price development over the holidays, Bitcoin (BTC) has to face another significant price drop shortly before the end of the year.
Bitcoin (BTC) – Returns to Range After Failed Breakout Attempt
BTC Course: $ 46,885 (Previous week: $ 48,487)
Endurance / Goals: $ 48,222, $ 49,942, $ 51,307, $ 52,125, $ 53,005, $ 54,077, $ 55,817, $ 56,979, $ 57,901, $ 59,778, $ 61,771, $ 63,189, $ 64,896, $ 66,299, $ 67,416, $ 69,000, $ 70,856 $ 76,472, $ 77,678, $ 85,563, $ 87,090, $ 89,982, $ 100,259, $ 114,961
Supports: $ 46,739, $ 45,474, $ 44,851, $ 42,542, $ 40,585, $ 39,581, $ 37,389, $ 36,643, $ 34,899, $ 30,000, $ 28,810, $ 26,170
Also this week, Bitcoin bulls attempted to push the BTC rate north above $ 52,000. However, the temporary spike in prices over the Christmas holidays so far has not been enough for a sustainable breakout. Instead, the bears impressively counterbalanced this attempt to break out of the $ 45,500- $ 52,000 lateral range. The key crypto currency is currently threatening to enter the support zone between $ 45,474 and $ 44,851 again. Should the purple uptrend line break out at the daily closing price, even a retest of the low at $ 42.542 is conceivable. It is imperative that buyers act here so as not to jeopardize the long-term uptrend.
Bullish scenario (Bitcoin price)
Although the bulls have thus far been able to avoid a sustained price drop below $ 45,474, they have so far lacked the strength to attempt a dynamic breakout. As long as the BTC rate does not drop below $ 44,851 at the daily closing rate, there is still a chance that further increase attempts will be made. For this, Bitcoin has to rise above the cross resistance of MA200 (green) again and resist horizontal at $ 48,222. Another strong hurdle awaits at $ 49,942 with the EMA200 (blue) and EMA20 (red). If the buyer manages to break this psychologically important price mark, the $ 51,307 mark will come into focus again. On several occasions this resistance could not be recovered by the daily closing price.
Only when the buyer manages to break the BTC rate above $ 51,307 and then breaks the weekly high of $ 52,125, will the imminent danger of a bearish selloff be avoided. A price surge above this resistance from the EMA50 (orange) and the upper Bollinger band requires significant momentum from the bulls. If the BTC rate can break this mark at the end of the day, a rise in the orange resistance zone between $ 53.005 and $ 54.077 should be planned. The superstrend on the daily chart is also running here. If the buyer side builds up enough buying pressure to regain this resistance zone at the daily closing price, the chart briefly lights in favor of the bulls. As a result, Bitcoin could immediately soar to $ 55,817.
The bulls are expected to return
If Bitcoin price can also break through this resistance level and thus regain the general red ascending trend line, the price targets at $ 56,979 and $ 57,901 are triggered. Already in November, the BTC rate failed to exceed this area several times. If, contrary to expectations, there is a breakout above these resistance levels, a medium-term directional decision can be expected at $ 59,778. The relevance of this course level has already been discussed several times in recent reviews. A breakout above this resistance would have a signal effect and should cause Bitcoin to rise further north. So Bitcoin could again penetrate the area between $ 63,189 and $ 64,896 if it breaks above $ 61,771.
If Bitcoin does not rebound significantly to the south and it may also outrun the November 15 high of $ 66,299, $ 67,416, and the all-time high of $ 69,000 they should also be tested again. If Bitcoin can subsequently develop a new all-time high and also break above $ 70,856, a surge towards $ 76,472 and $ 77,678 is likely. At the moment, this zone should be considered as the maximum target price on the upside. It remains to be seen if and when Bitcoin can develop the dynamic surge in the direction of the much-cited $ 100,000. A counterattack from the seller can be expected at any time below $ 60,000.
Bearish scenario (Bitcoin rate)
At the moment, the bears are still on the trigger. This week, too, the bullish attempt to rally could be clearly negated. For its part, the seller side must now do everything in their power to dynamically push the Bitcoin rate below $ 46,739 in the direction of the $ 45,474 low. In the event that Bitcoin falls below this support level and breaks the last lifeline of the bulls in the form of the lower Bollinger Band at $ 44,851, a directional decision will be made at the low of $ 42,542. If the bulls give up this price mark at the end of the day, the September low of $ 40,585 becomes the target mark. This would put the BTC rate again threateningly close to the trailing edge at $ 39,581.
A break at this important support level would end the uptrend for now. A weekly closing price below this support level leads to a clear sharpening of the trend. The BTC rate should immediately pull back to the 23rd Fibonacci retracement at $ 37,389. A direct sell to the turquoise zone between $ 36,643 and $ 34,899 shouldn’t be surprising either. If the bulls do not return to the market here, a retest of $ 30,000 is almost inevitable. If this psychologically important mark is undermined, a retest of $ 28,795 should be planned. A technical countermove can be expected here in the near term, but a sell off in the light green zone between $ 26,170 and $ 27,562 should come as no surprise. A relapse to close to $ 20,000 can only be prevented by bulk buying by the bulls.
Bitcoin dominance: the same procedure as every week
Bitcoin’s dominance continues to hover around its yearly lows. Although it has so far been possible to avoid a bearish follow-up move below 39.56 percent, a sustained rally above the EMA20 (red) failed again this week. Before the 42.38 percent resistance fails to recover sustainably, downside risks predominate.
BTC dominance: bullish scenario
BTC’s dominance is still unable to break the 40 percent mark. The first cross resistance of EMA20 and the horizontal resistance line is already waiting at 40.66 percent. If this resistance is overcome, an increase of up to 41.13 percent is initially conceivable. If this mark can also be recovered to the daily closing price, and subsequently the EMA50 (orange) can also be broken, the 42.28 percent area is targeted as the target mark. In addition to horizontal resistance, the superstrend and upper Bollinger band can also be found in this area.
On the first try, Bitcoin’s dominance should bounce south. Only when this zone can be sustainably bypassed is a subsequent rise to the orange hardiness zone conceivable between 42.99 percent and 43.36 percent. If this zone is also exceeded in the medium term, the recovery movement will expand in the direction of the red resistance zone. The MA200 (green) is currently at 43.82 percent. Lingering weakness makes a reversal over the upper edge of this resistance area currently unlikely, the crypto reserve currency’s dominance has been far too weak in recent weeks. The upper medium-term target price on the upside remains unchanged at 44.25 percent.
BTC dominance: bearish scenario
The longer BTC’s dominance cannot break away from its all-time lows in the north, the more likely it is to slide below the annual low of 39.56 percent. If you look at the prices of many Altcoins, there has already been relative strength compared to the key cryptocurrency Bitcoin in recent days and weeks. This is reflected in the poor performance of the BTC domain. As has been the case time and time again recently, every attempt to climb is being pushed south again by bears.
If the dominance of BTC falls below 39.56 percent at the daily closing price, the trend move will immediately expand to 37.67 percent. This is the last chance for a counter-movement to the north. However, if there is no dynamic counter-movement in this area, a correction expansion of Bitcoin’s dominance to the psychologically important mark of 30 percent over the medium term can no longer be ruled out. Such a correction of Bitcoin’s market power should lead to greater independence from Altcoins, which would be positive for the entire crypto market.
Disclaimer: The estimated prices presented on this page do not constitute purchase or sale recommendations, they are only an analyst evaluation.
The chart images were created using TradingView created.
USD / EUR exchange rate at time of publication: 0.88 euros.