The long-awaited preliminary decision on #Bitcoin has been postponed for the time being. So far, the bulls have failed to mark the expected year-end rally toward the $ 100,000 mark.
Bitcoin (BTC): caught between bears and bulls
BTC Course: $ 48,487 (Previous week: $ 47,686)
Endurance / Goals: $ 48,222, $ 49,942, $ 51,307, $ 53,005, $ 54,077, $ 55,817, $ 56,979, $ 57,901, $ 59,778, $ 61,771, $ 63,189, $ 64,896, $ 66,299, $ 67,416, $ 69,000, $ 70,856, $ 76,472 $ 77,678, $ 85,563, $ 87,090, $ 89,982, $ 100,259, $ 114,961
Supports: $ 46,739, $ 45,553, $ 44,851, $ 42,563, $ 40,585, $ 39,581, $ 37,389, $ 36,643, $ 34,899, $ 30,000, $ 28,810, $ 26,170
Bitcoin is still not moving. A further slide to the bottom at $ 42,563 in the $ 45,815 area was prevented several times, but the pullback above the EMA200 (blue) has so far failed. An interesting development can currently be seen in the open interest of Bitcoin futures. Investors bought a large number of short positions in recent trading days, betting on an expansion of the price correction for Bitcoin. This development could favor the bull in the next trading week. If the BTC rate does not consolidate further south in the near future, the seller’s side will increasingly close its short bets again. The background to this is the ongoing costs, the so-called “funding fees” to hold such positions. A dissolution of the bearish bets could lead to a so-called “short squeeze” and cause the price of Bitcoin to rise significantly.
Bullish scenario (Bitcoin price)
The resistance of the police is quite remarkable. They have repeatedly been able to avoid a breakout of the weekly low at $ 45,759 and thus stabilize the BTC rate above the MA200 (green). However, for their part, the bulls should try to lift the Bitcoin rate above the EMA200 to $ 49,942 to get closer to the $ 51,307 zone. If the buyer manages to break the BTC rate above $ 51,307, investors will initially focus on the orange zone again. The EMA50 (orange) and the upper Bollinger band can also be found at $ 53.005. Furthermore, the superstrend on the daily chart runs along the upper edge of the orange resistance zone at $ 54.077.
If Bitcoin manages to break out of this resistance zone, and thus also regains the red ascending trend line, the chart image lights up significantly in favor of the bulls. The subsequent surge should take Bitcoin immediately to $ 55,817. If Bitcoin also rises above this resistance level further north, the price targets are triggered at $ 56,979 and $ 57,901. The price of Bitcoin failed several times at this mark in late November. If this resistance level is sustainably overcome, the resistance at $ 59,778 will become the focus of investors’ attention. The relevance of this price level has been pointed out time and again in recent weeks.
The $ 100,000 scenario
If the buyer manages to get past this strong long-term resistance and also overcome the resistance at $ 61,771, it will be decided in the area between $ 63,189 and $ 64,896 if Bitcoin will attack its all-time high again. If Bitcoin then rises above the November 15 high at $ 66,299, the latest hurdles at $ 67,416 and especially $ 69,000 will come into focus. Only a daily closing price above the current all-time high continues the rally to at least $ 70,856.
If Bitcoin breaks through this price level sustainably, the next target range between $ 76,472 and $ 77,678 is triggered. If there is no significant heading correction, a subsequent rise in the direction of the target zone between $ 87,090 and $ 89,982 is conceivable. This means that the overhead price targets of $ 100,259 (Fibonacci extension 361) and $ 114,961 (Fibonacci extension 461) would be in reach. As long as Bitcoin can’t break above $ 60,000, another hit to the all-time high is still a long way off.
Bearish scenario (Bitcoin rate)
The recent increase in the number of bets on a lower Bitcoin rate indicates that many market players are expecting a broadening of Bitcoin correction. As long as the bears cap the BTC rate below $ 50,000, an understandable wish. Only when the seller can generate enough selling pressure to push Bitcoin below the weekly low of $ 45,553 per day of the closing price, the chances of a pullback towards the low of $ 42,400 will increase significantly. Before that, however, the price has to dynamically undermine the support at the $ 44,851 area.
The lower Bollinger band, rising significantly to the north, currently runs here. The fact that both Bollinger bands are gradually contracting indicates a preliminary decision in the coming trading weeks. If the bears manage to break out of $ 44.851 on a sustained basis, the test of $ 42.563 is likely to be retested. Either the bulls defend this mark and form a double bottom, or the bears break this support and record another partial success for themselves. Then the September low of $ 40,585 becomes the target.
The horror scenario for bullish investors
If Bitcoin doesn’t turn north here, there will be a major preliminary decision for the next few weeks and months on the trailing edge at $ 39,581. Therefore, the bulls should do everything in their power to defend this price level so as not to finally bury the uptrend. If Bitcoin falls below this price level at the weekly closing price, there is a threat of an exacerbation of the trend, which will initially lead the price of BTC to the 23rd Fibonacci retracement at $ 37,389. If there is also no buyer resistance here, Bitcoin will head to the turquoise zone between $ 36,643 and $ 34,899. A direct sell to the violet support zone cannot be ruled out either.
If the price of Bitcoin can stabilize again at the $ 30,000 area it will largely determine whether the bearish winter will continue to expand. A drop below the surprising low of $ 28,795 should lead to more panic selling among investors. So you can expect a sell-off in the light green zone between $ 26,170 and $ 27,562. In this zone, the bulls will have to do everything in their power to defend the BTC rate in order to avoid the price drop towards $ 20,000.
Bitcoin’s dominance can’t break through the year’s low
You might think that Bitcoin’s dominance simply doesn’t want to grow sustainably. A possible change should be postponed again. The rally attempt from the previous week was halted again, and as a result, the market power of the crypto reserve currency fell as low as 40 percent. Currently, BTC’s dominance is back at between 41.13 percent and 40.03 percent. Also, you need to wait for the 41.94 percent resistance to recover before you can expect new impulses.
BTC dominance: bullish scenario
BTC’s dominance continues to impulsively move into the 40 percent mark area. A first rally attempt should bring BTC’s dominance to 41.13 percent. The EMA20 (red) and a horizontal resistance are already waiting here. Only when this mark is surpassed by the daily closing price does the important mark of 41.94 percent come into focus again. The EMA50 (orange) is running here too. Only when this resistance is sustainably broken and recovered to 42.38 percent, will the orange zone between 42.99 percent and 43.36 percent be activated as the next target area.
Just below is the super trend on the daily chart, another strong hurdle. Therefore, it is very likely that there will be a decline in prices. If Bitcoin’s dominance can break out of this zone in the medium term, the recovery move will expand to the red resistance zone. The MA200 (green) can currently be found here. This area could not be overcome several times recently. From the current point of view, this zone represents the maximum upside price target for the next few weeks, so no more than 44.25 percent is expected at the moment.
BTC dominance: bearish scenario
The dominance of BTC has yet to budge. As was always the case last time, any attempt to get up is immediately denied. Proximity to the yearly low could lead to a new low this year if the 40.03 percent break and a subsequent 39.56 percent retest occurs. The more frequently a support is initiated, the more pronounced the downward movement should be if the support breaks.
If there is no dynamic countermove at this mark above the 40 percent threshold, Bitcoin’s dominance could correct up to the psychologically important 30 percent mark in the medium term. However, as long as 40 percent is not abandoned, northward impulses can be expected at any time.
Disclaimer: The estimated prices presented on this page do not constitute purchase or sale recommendations, they are only an analyst evaluation.
The chart images were created using TradingView created.
USD / EUR exchange rate at time of publication: 0.88 euros.