The cryptocurrency market is still unable to shake off its weakness from the past few weeks. The consolidation trend in Bitcoin (BTC) also put pressure on the prices of many Altcoins in the last week of trading.
The relative weakness of Bitcoins (BTC) is increasingly carried over to the entire crypto market. The recent announcement of three rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (FED) in 2022 is prompting investors to increasingly shift from risky assets to lower risk asset classes. Bitcoin is currently joining tech index (NASDAQ) weakness and continues to trend downtrend early in the week. If Bitcoin corrects again towards its low of $ 42,400, the altcoins will continue to weaken. Therefore, at this time it is advisable to watch the prices from the margin until the current uncertainty in the market disappears a bit.
Best price development among the top 10 Altcoins:
Terra continued to show its bullish side last week. Despite mounting selling pressure across the crypto market, LUNA’s price generated a new all-time high of $ 81.50 on Monday, December 20. Terra also turned slightly southward again in the last hours of trading, but in view of Bitcoin’s directionless course, this shouldn’t come as a surprise.
Bullish variant (Terra)
The LUNA course continued to increase in value. As long as the LUNA price stabilizes above the low at $ 52.17 in the coming trading days and can also double up the upper Bollinger band over the medium term, a rally to the next price target in the medium term is likely to occur. USD 93.93. If the LUNA rate does not drop significantly to the south here, a march to the Fibonacci 161 extension should also be planned in the next few trading weeks. That resistance can be found at $ 118.42. In this case, investors are likely to want more profit. If the bulls can sustainably break through this price mark, the mid-term price target of $ 145.45 comes into focus as a target mark. Long-term, a further rally to the 261 Fibonacci extension at $ 189.18 cannot be ruled out.
Bearish variant (Terra)
So far, the bears have not been able to sustainably push the LUNA below the MA20 (red). Only when Terra dynamically corrects below the support at $ 59.75, can bears expect further downside potential. If the LUNA price falls below this price mark again, the correction immediately extends to the old all-time high of $ 55.07. Again, resistance from buyers can be expected here. On the other hand, if Terra drops below this support again and also gives way to the low at $ 52.23, the multi-support of the lower Bollinger band and the superstrend is already waiting at the $ 50.50 area. If the LUNA rate breaks this strong support in the daily closing rate, the rate consolidation initially expands towards the orange zone. The 61 Fibonacci retracement and horizontal supports can be found in this area. Below $ 44.96, the chart deteriorates a bit for the first time.
Terra should then pull back towards the Fibonacci 50 retracement at $ 39.30. Under this price mark, one should look particularly at $ 37.87. In addition to the low sales of November 2021, the EMA200 (blue) can also be found in this area. Therefore, the first attempt should be made with a bounce to the north. Only when this support is undermined at the daily closing price does the correction extend further towards $ 34.76. The red support zone represents the maximum bearish price target price in the short term. At the lower edge of this area there is a strong support level with the Fibonacci 38 retracement and the MA200 (green). If the bears manage to break out of this price level sustainably in the coming months, Terra could even correct to $ 22.51. At the moment, however, such a significant price decline is not expected. Investors should use price pullbacks in the $ 55- $ 59 range for initial purchases.
The RSI indicator and the MACD show buy signals. However, there is currently a bearish divergence on a daily basis. This first sign calls for caution. A persistent weakness of the crypto reserve currency Bitcoin could also lead to a more significant price consolidation on Terra.
Worst price development among the top 10 altcoins:
The evolution of Polkadot prices during the last four trading weeks can be described as weak. After the DOT price hit a new all-time high in anticipation of the Parachain auctions, it finally just went downhill. After Polkadot fell below key support at $ 28.77 earlier this month, the bulls missed an opportunity to stabilize the DOT. Polkadot formed only lower highs and lows on the daily chart in December. Today Polkadot is back at a new low.
Bullish variant (polkadot)
The bulls appear to have turned their back on polkadot in the last four weeks of trading. More recently, it was not possible to regain the important skid resistance levels EMA200 (blue) and MA200 (green) on several occasions. Since the trend channel broke on November 15, the DOT price has clearly headed south and, as expected, it has been unable to benefit from investor interest in the parachain auctions issue. The police should try to initiate a technical reaction in a timely manner. The $ 26.13 mark should be seen as the first relevant resistance. If Polkadot manages to break above this level, investors will focus on the cross resistance at $ 28.77. Here you can expect a first directional decision in the short term. If the bulls can regain this long-term resistance level and thus also break out of the EMA20 (red) and MA200, a breakthrough to $ 31.46 is likely. However, this multi-resistance from the EMA200, the superstrend and the intermediate high on December 7 should be difficult to overcome directly.
From here on he becomes more optimistic
Only when the market as a whole can recover and investors show greater interest in newer Polkadot-based Altcoins, such as Moonbeam and Alcala, should the DOT price move north in a more sustainable way. If the buyer can stabilize the DOT price above this medium-term resistance, a rally after the Fibonacci 61 retracement at 34.47 is conceivable. If Polkadot also does not stop here and continues to rise in value, the next relevant price target is triggered at $ 37.38. This price level represents the trailing edge of the current trend movement and should also rebound. In addition to the upper Bollinger band, the orange resistance area also contains the make or break zone for the next few months. A recapture should give Polkadot a new boost and, if it breaks above $ 39.67, deliver a new potential price of up to $ 42.46. This resistance could not be overcome several times recently. If this mark on the chart breaks, the chart will light up even more and the price targets at $ 44.57 and especially $ 46.78 appear to be achievable again. At best, Polkadot could target the old all-time high of $ 49.81 in the coming months. According to the chart, there is no further upside potential at the moment.
Bearish variant (polkadot)
As long as the bears can cap the DOT rate below $ 28.77, at the most even below $ 31.46, lower rates cannot be ruled out in the coming days and weeks. The maximum bearish price target announced in the latest Polkadot analysis on Nov. 29 has already been reached and dropped by Polkadot with a breakout of $ 26.13. If the sell side keeps the selling pressure high and Polkadot dynamically falls below $ 23.69, the correction extends to at least $ 21.72. If there is also no resistance from the bullish field here, a direct retracement to the 23rd Fibonacci retracement of the entire trend movement is also conceivable. The lower Bollinger band is also running at the $ 19.70 area. Therefore, there should be at least a technical reaction to the north.
However, if this does not happen and Polkadot continues to weaken over the medium term and surpasses $ 17.89, it is unlikely that the sell-off is finished yet. Then the green support area between $ 13.13 and $ 15.43 comes into focus as the target zone. Once again, the police must resist. Should the cryptocurrency market extend its course correction in the coming months, a retest of the July 2021 low at $ 10.52 cannot be ruled out. Investors should wait for a possible bottom in these areas before making new long entries.
The MACD indicator and the RSI continue to show sell signals, but they are increasingly oversold. As long as the RSI indicator does not return to the neutral zone between 45 and 55, any recovery initially can only be seen as a technical recovery reaction. Just a passing 55 should trigger a new upward dynamic here.
Top 10 stability
The lack of price dynamics in Bitcoin continues to drive discounts on the prices of the top 10 Altcoins. Only the three ecosystem projects Avalanche (AVAX), Terra (LUNA) and Solana (SOL) are convincing. Terra tops the weekly winners list with a 20 percentage point increase in value. Avalanche at 16 percent shows a respectable bullish countermovement this week after a bearish previous week. The long list of weekly losers is led by Polkadot (DOT) with a heading correction of 19 percent, followed by Cardano (ADA) with nine percentage points. Both projects recently disappointed with sustained underperformance. Binance Coin (BNB) and Ethereum (ETH) are each losing around nine percentage points in value, as much as Bitcoin itself. Terra’s current stronghold caused a change of location this week. Terra passes Polkadot to seventh place.
Winner and loser of the week
As in previous weeks, the price development of many of the top 100 Altcoins is influenced by Bitcoin’s trading range. The vast majority of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies show a price discount on a weekly basis. However, the price discounts are mostly limited. Gala (GALA) tops the weekly losers list with a 28 percent price drop. With BitTorrent (BTT) and Near (NEAR) there are also two winners from the previous week among the biggest losers of the week. Both cryptocurrencies lose more than 22 percentage points. Given this uncertainty in the market, investors apparently continue to hedge more and more short-term price gains.
Internet Computer (ICP), as well as Holo (HOT) and Loopring (LRC) are also weak, each with a heading correction of almost 20 percent. ICP, in particular, has been significantly disappointing since its initial listing and is now trading 95 percent below its peak. Of the almost 20 altcoins that have shown a price increase, yearn.finance (YFI) with 58 percent and Arweave (AR) with a percentage increase in value stand out positively. Hedera (HBAR) with 27 percent and Spell Token (SPELL) with a good price increase of 20 percent were also bullish. The fact that only ten of the top 100 Altcoins were able to generate double-digit growth underscores the wait-and-see attitude of many investors.
Disclaimer: The estimated prices presented on this page do not constitute purchase or sale recommendations, they are only an analyst evaluation.
The chart images were created using TradingView created.
USD / EUR exchange rate at time of publication: 0.88 euros.