While the price of Bitcoin is still looking for direction, growing uncertainty among investors manifests itself in a return to Bitcoin’s dominance.
Bitcoin (BTC): Address Search Continues
BTC Course: $ 47,686 (Previous week: $ 49,400)
Endurance / Goals: $ 48,222, $ 49,942, $ 51,307, $ 53,005, $ 54,077, $ 55,817, $ 56,979, $ 57,901, $ 59,778, $ 61,771, $ 63,189, $ 64,896, $ 66,299, $ 67,416, $ 69,000, $ 70,856, $ 76,472 $ 77,678, $ 85,563, $ 87,090, $ 89,982, $ 100,259, $ 114,961
Supports: $ 47,070, $ 46,739, $ 44,851, $ 42,563, $ 40,585, $ 39,581, $ 37,389, $ 36,643, $ 34,899, $ 30,000, $ 28,810, $ 26,170
The crypto reserve currency rate is still in digest mode. So far, the bulls have managed to avoid another slide to the low at $ 42,563, but the buyers also lacked the strength for a bullish countermove. As a consequence, the price of Bitcoin has wedged in the last trading days between EMA200 (blue) at the top and MA200 (green) at the bottom and, as expected, it is trending sideways. The entire financial market is waiting for new statements from the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, this Wednesday night. Along with the big drop in bets in the traditional financial market on Friday, December 17, two price-relevant events are imminent. This uncertainty is currently reflected in the BTC rate.
Bullish scenario (Bitcoin price)
The police are still on the prowl. An adequate buying momentum could not be generated in the last days of trading. At the end of the day, the price of BTC failed to stabilize above the EMA200 (blue) at $ 49,942 several times. However, at least one daily closing price below the MA200 (green) at $ 46,739 could be avoided. The goal of the bulls should remain to get the Bitcoin rate back above $ 50,000 towards $ 51,307 as quickly as possible. Here you can expect a first preliminary decision. Only when the buyer allows the BTC rate to break above $ 51,307 does the orange zone become the focus of investors’ attention again. However, to do this, the Fibonacci 61 retracement and the EMA20 (red) must rally. If the bulls manage to lift the BTC rate above $ 53.005 in the direction of $ 54.077 and stabilize above, the chart lights in favor of the bulls. With that, Bitcoin would have regained the predominant rising trend line. Then a follow-up increase of up to $ 55,817 should be planned. If Bitcoin does not bounce south to $ 55,817 and continues to rise in value, the superstrend is already waiting at $ 56,979. Regaining this resistance triggers the next price target at $ 57,901. The price of Bitcoin failed several times at this mark in late November. A breakout should immediately take Bitcoin to $ 59,778.
The rocky road to new all-time highs
As discussed in last week’s analysis, it is imperative that the $ 60,000 mark rally to unleash further upside potential. If the bulls manage to break through this resistance and subsequently also break above $ 61,771, it will be decided in the area between $ 63,189 and $ 64,896 if Bitcoin will attack its all-time high again. If Bitcoin then breaks the November 15 high at $ 66,299, the last potential reversal levels come into focus at $ 67,416 and especially $ 69,000. Only a daily closing price above the previous high makes the rally likely to continue to at least $ 70,856. A stabilization above this resistance level should see Bitcoin rise in the medium term towards $ 76,472 and $ 77,678. If Bitcoin subsequently breaches this resistance area as well, the possibility of a march towards the conceivable medium-term target zone between $ 87,090 and $ 89,982 increases. Bitcoin should also target the overhead price targets at $ 100,259 (361 Fibonacci extension) and $ 114,961 (461 Fibonacci extension) in the following months. As long as the bulls don’t make a sustainable breakout, the six-figure price targets are still a long way off.
Bearish scenario (Bitcoin rate)
The bears also managed to cap the BTC rate below $ 50,000 this week. However, so far, the selling pressure generated has not been enough to push the price of Bitcoin below the MA200. Just a drop below $ 46,739 at the end of the day should push Bitcoin further to the weekly low of $ 45,759. If this support is subsequently abandoned as well, a directional decision will be made between $ 44,273 and $ 44,851. If the seller manages to dynamically undermine these marks, the correction immediately extends to the low in the $ 42,563 area. The probability of a widening of the correction will increase further. If Bitcoin does not turn significantly north in this zone, a relapse to the September low of $ 40,585 is likely. As a result, the bulls chart clouded again. A drop below $ 40,000 focuses the trailing edge at $ 39,581.
The bulls should be available here so as not to end the uptrend. Leaving this price mark at the weekly closing rate initially ends any chance of new highs in the near future. The result would be a direct sell-off to the 23rd Fibonacci retracement at $ 37.389. If there is also no massive counter-movement here, the BTC rate will subsequently drop to at least the turquoise zone between $ 36,643 and $ 34,899. Interim technical rallies are conceivable at any time, but a first rally of $ 42,563 would help the bulls going forward. However, a correction expansion towards the purple support zone at $ 30,000 is most likely. Whether the Bitcoin rate can stabilize here also depends on the state of the classical financial market. A price slide into the light green zone between $ 26,170 and $ 27,562 cannot be ruled out.
Bitcoin dominance: BTC dominance uses year low as springboard
Persistent weakness across the crypto market prompted a reversal of Bitcoin’s dominance in the last seven trading days. Due to growing uncertainty, investors increasingly switched from Altcoin investments to Bitcoin. This trend could already be observed in both May and September of this year. However, it is still too early to talk about a change in trend. Although Bitcoin’s dominance increased in recent trading days by around five percentage points to the north and may currently stabilize above the EMA20 (red), the 41.94 percent resistance has yet to rebound.
BTC dominance: bullish scenario
The BTC dominance was at least somewhat successful in breaking free. With the change of course in the area of the annual lows, at least the formation of new lows could be avoided. If the dominance of the key crypto currency exceeds the zone by 41.94 percent and continues to rise, the 42.38 percent must also rebound to ensure a more sustainable stabilization. There is a cross resistance consisting of EMA50 (orange) and a horizontal resistance line. If the dominance of BTC can also break this resistance, investors will focus on the orange resistance zone between 42.99 percent and 43.36 percent as the target area. In addition to the upper Bollinger band, the superstrend on the daily chart stands at 43.36 percentage points. Therefore, it is very likely that there will be a decline in prices.
If Bitcoin’s dominance can break out of this zone in the medium term, the recovery move will expand to the red resistance zone. The MA200 (green) can currently be found here. This area could not be overcome several times recently. If the release hit succeeds in this resistance zone, BTC’s dominance is likely to rise further and target the blue zone between 45.08 percent and 45.71 percent. With the EMA200 (blue) and major resistance at 45.71 percent, this zone represents the maximum expected target range for the time being. Only when Bitcoin’s dominance can break out of this range sustainably will there be a recovery to the October high of 47.72 Percent imaginable.
BTC dominance: bearish scenario
BTC’s dominance turned north at the last minute and prevented a new yearly low from forming. Although BTC’s dominance has remarkably recovered recently, a pullback to 41.13 percent is conceivable at any time. If Bitcoin’s dominance falls below this price mark again and then falls back below 40.66 percent, the 40 percent area will come back into focus as the target area. It is not uncommon for the fourth attempt at support to lead to a breakthrough. If BTC’s dominance falls below the 40.03 percent mark at the daily closing price, a retest of the September 13 annual low at 39.56 percent should be planned.
If Bitcoin’s dominance doesn’t stabilize here, the downtrend is likely to continue and recede by at least 37.67 percent. If the weakness continues, a relapse to the psychologically important mark of 30 percent is also conceivable. To monitor the situation and not get caught on the wrong foot, investors should keep a close eye on the Ethereum / Bitcoin chart in the coming weeks. A sustained superior performance of Ethereum compared to Bitcoin can be used as a good indicator for the test of strength between Bitcoin and Altcoins.
Disclaimer: The estimated prices presented on this page do not constitute purchase or sale recommendations, they are only an analyst evaluation.
The chart images were created using TradingView created.
USD / EUR exchange rate at time of publication: 0.88 euros.